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Home arrow Latest News arrow Latest arrow Amateur successfully predicts major earthquake
Amateur successfully predicts major earthquake
by Bobby Fontaine
October 16, 2008

On August 25, I published an article on google news titled "Earthquake prediction for Monday and Tuesday." It was a last minute decision. The article was very short. I simply wanted put in the Google’s new search index a record of my prediction that when tropical storm Fay entered into regions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that were experiencing extreme drought conditions, that the large amounts of rain that were going to get dumped there would cause a major earthquake somewhere in the world.  

The truth is that the earthquakes I was talking about were already occurring. They started as soon as small amounts of rain entered into the drought areas of the South.  By the time I published the prediction, there had already been a series of earthquakes caused by the rain. That’s nothing new. I’ve been tracking earthquakes related to the drought for a year and there are always large earthquakes around the world when it rains there. But when it was forecast that heavy drought ending rains were going to pass through the driest areas, I knew it was time to put something in a public record. I almost didn’t do it because if I had been wrong, it would go against what I’d already been correct about with my overall theory. For the many hundreds of quakes I’ve gathered credible intelligence on, they haven’t been publicly predicted. I gather information about them after they occur. But in a way they are publicly predicted because I write about how they happen in defined and predictable patterns when rain enters the South all the time.
 
But making a claim that a major earthquake will occur has the potential to damage the importance of my other findings if it doesn’t happen so it was a big risk. Once an article is indexed to Google’s news search engine, the link to it stays there in its archives. My theory pretty much only works one way. When severe droughts end, there are resulting cataclysmic earthquakes. And thank God there was an earthquake, which therein lies the another dilemma with predicting major earthquakes. I don’t want them to happen.

I don’t want to see thousands or hundreds of thousands of people die and whole regions of humanity’s efforts wiped out. So when predicting an earthquake, I have to risk the credibility of my work while hoping nothing comes of my forecast. It’s a difficult decision. I don’t like it when I find myself hoping for a major earthquake and then it happens like I have in the past. But this time it was easier than the others. I got my earthquake and no one got hurt. It happened on Wednesday, August 27 in the Lake Baikal region of Siberia in Russia, a 9-point magnitude earthquake. Of course my prediction was for Monday or Tuesday. But when it’s Wednesday morning where the earthquake occurred, it’s still Tuesday here where the rain was coming down.

Image

But even so, my prediction was for the time that flooding rains were making their way through the Southeast drought areas. I just wrote the headline for Monday or Tuesday as my way of announcing that I was predicting that an earthquake would happen at a certain time so readers would be more likely to click on the link to the article. It got a little over a hundred reads, not very many. But the important thing was to get it posted in Google’s news archives where it can’t be disputed whether it was made, not even if the article is removed from the web site it’s posted to now. Even after that, Google will still show a link to it showing the headline title and first few sentences so it will forever be very difficult to dispute whether I successfully predicted a major earthquake, or failed to if that had been the case.

There had already been a string of quakes before I made the prediction, which was before the center of the storm dropped the major portion of the flooding rains in the badly affected drought areas. There was a 6 pointer that hit the capital of Uzbekistan in Tashkent and a 5.1 magnitude in Japan on Friday, August 22. That was when rain from Fay began to creep its way into the bone dry South. Then she headed southwest dropping just below the drought affected areas. On August 25, she came back dropping flooding rains in the center of the worst drought affected regions. That’s when there was a series on earthquakes that made me realize I should go ahead and make a prediction.

Only small amounts of rain were edging around where marginal drought was occurring while still sparking off some fairly large quakes. So I knew once the main portion of the storm came all the way into the worst affected regions, there would be a major earthquake. There always is when this happens. Even when the recent 5.4 magnitude earthquake in California happened, China was cutting back on pollution to prepare for the upcoming Olympics in Beijing while making it rain in drought affected parts of their country by seeding clouds with chemicals. India was also having large amounts of flooding rain in regions that were having bad droughts. But those are not drought areas of the world I cover. I watch the drought in the Southeast US which always causes earthquakes to happen east of here on the other side of the globe, or down south heading towards the Antarctica through the Caribbean and South America.

On the 25th of August, the earthquake that inspired me to risk making a prediction happened in China around Tibet with a 6.8 quake that was followed by 174 after shocks, some of them over 5 point magnitude in size. In fact it was later upgraded to have been an 8 pointer by Chinese seismologists. 7600 people along with 622 homes were affected with hundreds of tents and thousands of quilts being rushed in to the region by the Chinese military to help people who were made homeless. There was also a 5.9 quake in New Zealand. They haven’t had a big one like that in a populated area in a long time so they were fairly startled by it.  And there was a 5.7 pointer in the Philippines. After I wrote the article on Tuesday, there was a 6.3 magnitude quake in Peru and a 6.6 pointer in Java in Indonesia. So the one in Indonesia actually happened Monday time for us here in the US. That’s a powerful series of earthquakes to occur over a couple days time even as compared to when I’ve tracked rain through the drought regions in the past.

As rain was coming down in the worst drought affected areas on Wednesday August 27, which would have been Tuesday the 26th here, the big one hit in Russia. And on Thursday August 28, a 6.1 earthquake struck off the coast British Columbia in the
Western Pacific side of Canada. There had been 18 in the same area the week leading up to it, 15 of them over an 18 hour period on Wednesday the 27th. They always have them when rains come through the drought areas of the South. When there is a lot of rain, there are a lot of the same kinds underwater earthquakes there that don’t do any damage. This always works out well for me because I get good data without it being at the expense of life or property. It’s not always like that.

What’s wrong with this picture?

You’re probably thinking there’s something wrong with this story where I’m reporting on a 9 point earthquake but you haven’t heard reports from anywhere in the world about whole landscapes being demolished as if a nuclear weapon had been detonated there. There’s a twist but it doesn’t take away from the credibility of my prediction. There’s more than one scale for deciding the magnitude of an earthquake. Japan has a 7 point system while there are two standard scales we use, one being a 12-point scale and the Richter which is a 10-pointer.

The Siberian quake was of a 9-point magnitude on a 12-point scale. At first no one had put together the whole story when the US Geological Survey said it recorded the quake at 6.2 on a Richter scale. This seemingly came as a dispute to the reported 9 point quake as readers and writers alike took the claim to mean a 9 point Richter scale earthquake. But a 6.2 earthquake on the Richter scale would be the equivalent of a 7.4 on a 12 point scale. So still there are discrepancies. But then a 6.2 earthquake wouldn’t have caused the kind of damages this 9 pointer did. Later seismologist in the region it occurred in settled on the quake being “at least 7.6” on a 10 point Richter scale.

But see it happened right next to a lake, the deepest fresh water lake in the world. The quake was at a 6-mile depth. The lake is 6.2 miles deep. So what I think happened was that seismic readings in the area the quake happened in proved it to be quite large. It caused a major cut off of electricity and brought down communication systems while sending thousands of residents out into the open skies fleeing for safety from their homes. The region is known to be earthquake prone. In fact in August of 1959, there was a 9-point earthquake there as well. So buildings have all been constructed to withstand bad earthquakes.

I am inclined to believe the reports of it being a 7.6 or stronger on a 10 point Richter scale the way the Russians say it is. They were there and recorded it that way. We recorded it from much further away. And it would seem to me that if it happened at such a depth as 6 miles with a lake that is also that deep being right next to where it occurred, the lake would likely have absorbed much of the vibrations sent out from its epicenter except for seismic meters that were stationed right where the activity occurred.

To tell you the truth, I have never seen this kind of dispute over the magnitude of an earthquake happen before. In fact I had just prior to tropical storm Fay met a retired geologist from the USGS who said he was going to forward the video below that outlines my tracking of rain through the drought regions in the South over last winter, to friends of his in the USGS. I also told him to watch what happens if Fay moved into the drought areas of the South. And it wouldn’t surprise me if someone at the USGS saw my prediction article who later realized that the earthquake in Russia validated my theory publicly.

You need to have flashplayer enabled to watch this Google video

You need to have flashplayer enabled to watch this Google video

They have always ignored me in the past because I am not accredited as a earthquake scientist. I mean I know it sounds crazy to think the USGS would alter its recordings of an earthquake as an easy way to refute my findings by making the intensity of the Russia earthquake less relevant to my prediction. But then Russia has been taking a great deal of flack for what it did in Georgia recently so it also stands to reason that there are political motives for downplaying the importance of that earthquake that have nothing to do with me.

Then again, I wrote perhaps one of the only articles in the world that praised the Russians for stepping up and punishing Georgia for invading Ossetia and Abkhazia for slaughter thousands of innocent citizens just as the Olympic games were getting under way. I published it the week before I made my earthquake prediction. And I have no doubt the Russians saw it. Being in Google’s news search engine, I don’t doubt that our government took definite notice of it either. So there are actually motives for both the Russians and the USGS to be bending the Richter scale a few points to suit their political agenda.

Russia is at deep odds with the US over recognizing Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states from Georgia while I’ve been waging a war to defended myself against our government for the past ten years. Some simple research on my activism would bare out the fact that if my earthquake theory was ever properly and publicly vetted, it would lead to the much more complex reason why I became interested in droughts and earthquakes in the first place. This would put a lot of our leaders against the wall for much worse crimes against humanity than defending the helpless citizens of breakaway republics of the former Soviet Union from their former rulers who would like to cast them back to their original status as second class labor forces in their home republics.

I still don’t see how the world is allowing itself to be taken in by our chastising Russia for defending Ossetia and Abkhazia against Georgian aggression. But I’m sure it’s because the one thing the West has always feared about Russia is them figuring out how free and transparent markets work, which is happening now while the US and EU’s economies are crashing in on themselves because they’ve become so corrupt, or that’s the way it was until Georgia invaded Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now the West is trying to push the Russians into a corner again hoping the make belligerent mistakes that lead to another cold war so our rich people don’t have to compete with their burgeoning new markets. It’s a terrible mistake on our part that I believe the Russians are far to smart to fall into the trap of.  

Whatever the truth is for why on the one day I had an earthquake prediction posted on Google’s news search index, the only politically controversial earthquake I have ever encountered in my research came along and validated my earthquake theory one more infallible time. So I’m pleased with the outcome, especially since no one was hurt. But therein lies the next issue I have to report on, a new earthquake prediction. By this time tomorrow, tropical storm Hannah might be drenching the Southeast once again while the drought still isn’t over yet. After that, there is Hurricane Ike.

Drought ending rains cause severe earthquakes

It’ been my experience that when a drought finally ends as the land conforms back to the weight it was before the drought began when water levels return to normal, there’s a terribly destructive earthquake. The earthquake in Sichuan China that struck on May 12 of this year killing nearly 70,000 people, which was reported as an 8.2 quake by the Chinese but a 7.9 by the USGS, came during the same time that the drought nearly ended, on the same day. That was just before the spring and summer months brought the drought
back again.

Image

So the next few days ought to be quite telling both for my theory and prediction status if these new storm drench the Southeast once again. It might equally be as interesting for the politics that surrounds my work where I have many variations of the same story being used in different and successful efforts to expose something terribly wrong with the US government and our political leadership. Read the articles below to get a better understanding of it all.  

Pollution science and the cause of latest hurricanes
by Bobby Fontaine
September 3, 2008

The whole story about why the world is falling apart
by Bobby Fontaine
June 28, 2008

Check out more of my artcies at – BobbyFontaine.blogspot.com

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